I made a simple peak oil simulator using historic oil production data from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy. The simulator allows you to use sliders to adjust the year of peak oil, the total ultimate recoverable barrels, and the growth rate.
The model also includes a solver, using the Nelder-Mead Algorithm, to find the best fit line for the peak oil curve.
After many years of nobody talking about peak oil we’ve now seen Bloomberg talking about peak oil, The Financial Times asking if China has hit peak oil, and the CEO of Oxy saying the US is going to hit peak oil in the next five years.
Of course peak oil never went away. Oil is a finite resource so oil production will eventually hit a maximum production rate. But after taking a decade long hiatus with the rise of fracking, it’s possible we’re back to where we need to worry about peak oil.
Try out the model here.
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